AI demand forecasting tool deployed across NHS emergency departments

A new A&E demand forecasting tool is being used by 50 NHS organisations to predict when emergency departments are likely to be busiest, allowing staff to plan ahead and reduce bottlenecks during peak periods. 

The tool, developed as part of the government’s wider AI strategy, is available to all NHS trusts in England and currently has around 170 active users each month. The initiative is being led jointly by the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology and the Department of Health and Social Care, and represents the latest milestone in the Prime Minister’s AI Exemplars programme. The programme is designed to demonstrate how artificial intelligence can be deployed safely and effectively across public services, including health, justice, tax and planning.

By analysing historical attendance data alongside wider factors such as seasonal illness trends and weather forecasts, the tool generates short- and medium-term predictions of A&E demand. Hospital managers can use these insights to plan staffing levels, allocate bed capacity and anticipate pressure points before they materialise.

For frontline staff, the aim is to reduce last-minute decision-making and crisis management, replacing it with more predictable and data-driven planning. For patients, the government says this should translate into shorter waits and quicker access to care, particularly during periods of intense pressure such as winter.

Technology Secretary Liz Kendall MP said: “AI is already improving healthcare by speeding up diagnosis and unlocking new treatments. Now we are going a step further. By helping to predict demand, this AI forecasting tool is getting patients the care they need faster while supporting our incredible NHS staff.”

Health Innovation Minister Dr Zubir Ahmed MP said the tool was part of the “AI revolution” and would help hospitals manage winter pressures by ensuring resources are prioritised where they are most needed, as part of a longer-term shift from analogue to digital healthcare.

Early feedback from NHS staff using the system has been positive, with hospital managers reporting that clearer forecasts are supporting better decisions around staffing and capacity. Local users include NHS Coventry and Warwickshire Integrated Care Board and NHS Bedfordshire, Luton and Milton Keynes Integrated Care Board.

The forecasting tool is delivered through the NHS Federated Data Platform and sits alongside other AI Exemplars, such as AI-supported diagnostics, assisted discharge summaries and GOV.UK Chat. Together, these initiatives signal the government’s intent to embed AI into the fabric of public service delivery, with the NHS at the forefront of that transformation.